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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers improving in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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